The issue of climate migration, i.e. human movement linked to the effects of climate change, is a topic of increasing debate in political, scientific and humanitarian circles. While some regard it as a theoretical hypothesis or an alarmist discourse, others see it as a tangible reality, with millions of Africans being forced to move within their own countries due to drought, floods or the degradation of their livelihoods. Africa is often considered one of the continents most vulnerable to warming, raising two questions: is climate migration already observable, and should we anticipate it becoming a major future phenomenon?

Data published by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) indicates that the number of internally displaced persons in Africa has increased sixfold between 2009 et 2023 due to natural disasters, which are often exacerbated by climate change. This places climate-related events among the main causes of displacement after conflicts.

These movements are frequently internal: droughts, floods, violent storms and rising sea levels force families to abandon areas that have become uninhabitable or economically unsustainable, prompting them to relocate to safer urban centres or regions where resources are readily available.

Demographic projections confirm the potential scale of the phenomenon. According to the World Bank’s Groundswell Africa report, up to 86 million Africans could be forced to migrate within their own countries by 2050 if adaptation measures are not implemented.

A broader estimate suggests that 113 million Africans could be compelled to relocate within the continent by 2050 – nearly 5% of the continent’s population – due to prolonged droughts, water stress, loss of arable land and rising sea levels.

Understanding climate migration

Rather than being a single, monolithic concept, climate migration refers to a range of mobility phenomena influenced by climate-related environmental conditions. These can include:

  • Direct: sudden disasters (e.g. hurricanes or floods) forcing populations to flee their homes immediately.
  • Indirect: a succession of gradual changes (e.g. drought, soil degradation, crop loss) that progressively undermine livelihoods and lead to survival-based migration decisions.
  • Complex and multidimensional, where a combination of economic, political and climatic factors influence the decision to move.

Researchers emphasise that there is not always a single, purely climatic cause behind each population movement, and that the decision to migrate is often the result of an interaction between social vulnerability, environmental change and economic opportunities.

Increased vulnerability in Africa

Although Africa contributes only a small amount to global greenhouse gas emissions, it is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including rising temperatures, frequent droughts, rising sea levels, flooding and water scarcity. These conditions directly affect the livelihoods of those dependent on agriculture, livestock or fishing.

Many countries rely on rain-fed agriculture, meaning even slight variations in rainfall can drastically reduce crop yields and force farmers and their families to seek opportunities elsewhere.

Reality versus myth: the state of the environmental evidence

Figures and projections indicate that climate-induced migration is already occurring in Africa, primarily in the form of internal displacement rather than direct international migration driven solely by climate change. While the direct impact on cross-border migration remains limited at this stage, it is likely to increase as climatic conditions worsen.

In countries such as Malawi, for example, recurrent droughts have already displaced hundreds of thousands of people in search of fertile land and water, demonstrating how climate can trigger large-scale internal migration.

What distinguishes climate migration from other forms of mobility is the interaction between environmental factors and socio-economic ones. Drought, for instance, not only affects the climate, but also impacts agriculture, income and food security, making certain populations increasingly vulnerable and more likely to migrate.

Controversies and data limitations

Researchers agree that precise data on human climate migration remains limited. It is difficult to measure exactly how many people migrate solely because of climate change, since human migration is often driven by multiple interacting factors, such as the economy, security and family.

Some experts caution that labelling all African migration as being linked to poverty or the search for opportunities would be an oversimplification. Rather, the relationship is cumulative and contextual: climate change exacerbates existing factors that can influence a migration decision.

Social and political consequences

Climate migration has significant social consequences, including increased pressure on urban services, competition for scarce resources, tensions between newcomers and local populations, and the heightened vulnerability of displaced groups.

For many African governments, climate migration poses management challenges and incentives to strengthen adaptive capacities. This includes local climate policies, programmes to increase agricultural resilience, investments in water and irrigation systems, and strategies to integrate displaced populations into host communities.

Towards more effective integration of climate migration into public policies

Several international organisations advocate an approach that incorporates migration and climate adaptation into national policies. This involves anticipating population movements, strengthening the livelihoods of vulnerable communities and establishing legal frameworks to enable safe and organised migration.

Regional strategies, particularly in West Africa and the Lake Victoria Basin, identify potential “hotspots” of climate migration that could emerge as early as 2030. These require transnational coordination to ensure effective responses.