The Global Report on Food Crises (GFRG 2023) has produced another report by the Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS). According to Dr. Abdoulaye Mohamadou, CILSS Executive Secretary, about 28.60 million people are affected by food and nutrition insecurity in the Sahel and West Africa region. This figure, he warns, could reach 41.47 million if adequate responses are not provided during the lean season from June to August 2023.

Dr. Mohamadou points out a conjunction of several complex factors of vulnerability that affect the living conditions of the populations in this area. Among these, the regional security crisis caused massive population displacements.

Increase in armed conflicts and increase in displaced populations

The CILSS Report 2023 focused mainly on Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria (in the North) and Chad (in the West) to focus on the intensification of conflicts and civil and cross-border insecurity that continue to lead to a deterioration of the food and nutrition situation. This is due to the persistence of the security crisis in the Lake Chad Basin and the tri-border region within the central Sahel, and an intensification of kidnapping and organized crime in northeastern and north-central Nigeria.

“The insurgency in the Lake Chad Basin is at the root of one of the most protracted conflicts in the world, marked by kidnappings, suicide attacks, forced and opportunistic recruitment, gender-based violence and human rights violations,” says the document reviewed by Dialogue Migration.

It adds, from the same source, that “similarly, in the central Sahel, the presence of extremist groups coupled with political instability has led to an upsurge in violence, terrorism and armed conflicts. It is of particular concern that the northern border areas of coastal countries, namely Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea and Togo, have seen an upsurge in violence spreading from the central Sahel.”

The number of insecurity and conflict events in the five countries increased by 58% in 2021 compared to the previous year and by 27% in 2022, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). During the first quarter of 2023, the frequency of insecurity events was high and similar to the same magnitude observed in 2022, ACLED noted in its report published in May 2023.

This instability and security crisis has led to massive population displacement and disruption of livelihoods, pastoral transhumance, markets and trade. “In the most severely affected areas, the delivery of humanitarian assistance remains severely compromised. This is evidenced by the very worrying fact that about 42,700 people in the Boucle du Mouhoun and Sahel regions of Burkina Faso and about 2,500 in the Ménaka region of Mali are projected to be in disaster during the period from June to August 2023,” reads the 36-page document produced by CILSS.

7.8 million people displaced and at risk of food insecurity

A growing displacement crisis is noted in the Sahel and West Africa region, with 6.62 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the five conflict-affected countries and 1.24 million refugees and asylum-seekers in 15 countries by the end of 2022, according to 2022 figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

“Nigeria and Burkina Faso alone account for 83% of IDPs in the region, with these populations increasing rapidly (see IDP chart per country). The number of IDPs in Nigeria increased from 3.18 million in January 2022 to 3.57 million at the end of 2022, as a result of ongoing conflicts in the northeast of the country and increased criminal activity in the north-west and north-central regions,” CILSS investigators report.

The report also highlights that in Burkina Faso alone, the number of IDPs increased more than 40-fold between 2018 and 2022, from 47,000 to 1.88 million, and reached 2.07 million in March 2023. This makes it one of the fastest growing displacement crises in the world, according to the IDMC of May 2022.

In the north of the country, many towns and villages have been besieged by armed groups since the beginning of 2019, making it extremely difficult for residents to access food, water and other basic goods and services.

1.4 million refugees and asylum-seekers in the region

The end-2022 report of the Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) states that there were 1.24 million refugees and asylum seekers in the region, almost half of whom were hosted in Chad, mainly from Sudan.

“Since the upsurge in armed conflict in Sudan in mid-April 2023, many people have been forced to flee, with the number of refugees in Chad rising from 592,000 in December 2022 to 680,000 at the end of May 2023. Niger remains the second country hosting the largest number of refugees and asylum-seekers, with refugees mainly from Nigeria.

Then come Mauritania with refugees mainly from Mali and Nigeria with refugees mainly from Cameroon,” the report notes.

This indicates that population displacement increases pressure on basic social services, whose congestion leads to a shortage of essential services such as food and non-food items, shelter, protection, nutrition and health services.

CILSS cites as an example the Ménaka region of Mali, where the unprecedented deterioration of the security situation has led to 50,000 internally displaced persons finding refuge in urban centers; which do not have sufficient infrastructure to cover all their needs in terms of food, water, housing and health.

“Similarly, population displacement has exacerbated demand on limited natural resources, including agricultural land, grazing land and water, for both displaced and host populations,” the document said.

Markets disrupted by high demand from displaced people, movement of livestock too

The massive displacement of populations caused by conflict in the region has had a major and negative impact on food availability and markets by limiting local crop production and increasing the dependence of displaced households on markets for food. A situation that has had an impact on prices already affected by inflation.

“This was particularly the case in markets in insecure areas in Burkina Faso and Mali, where staple grain prices remained between 17 and 33 percent above their previous year’s levels,” the report notes.

It is not only human beings who are impacted by this insecurity and forced displacement. “Conflict and poor security conditions have hampered transhumant people, with massive movements of atypical herds to Sudanese areas and coastal countries observed. This has led in places to a high concentration of herds and the depletion of pastures and water points, the deterioration of the body condition of livestock and an increase in clashes between farmers and pastoralist communities over land use. (…) In April 2022, insecurity stranded more than 1.3 million head of livestock in several border areas in West Africa, including the Tahoua region of Niger and the tri-border area between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. All these conditions have led to economic and food losses,” he added.