In 2025, the number of migrants arriving via the Canary Islands route saw a decrease of 62%. So-called irregular migration also declined by more than 40% nationwide in Spain. These figures, frequently cited by European authorities, suggest a significant downturn. However, behind these statistics lies a human reality of suffering and death, with threats merely being shifted elsewhere.
The decrease in arrivals cannot be explained by an improvement in the living conditions of people in their countries of origin. Rather, it is primarily the result of agreements between the European Union and several transit countries, including Morocco, Mauritania and Senegal. While these agreements strengthen controls on departures and tighten borders, they do not offer safe and legal alternatives for those fleeing conflict, persecution or severe violence.
That year, almost 18,000 people arrived in the Canary Islands, with one in two landing on El Hierro, an island with fewer than 12,000 inhabitants. The majority of these arrivals were exhausted and dehydrated survivors of crossings that had lasted several days or even weeks on makeshift boats. A decline in arrivals however, does not eliminate the brutality of the journey, it simply renders it less apparent.
When routes close, danger shifts elsewhere
At the same time, routes are changing. In Ceuta, more and more people are attempting to swim across from Morocco. Forty-four bodies have already been recovered this year. Once again, the sea is becoming an invisible and deadly barrier. In the Balearic Islands, arrivals have increased by 24.5% in one year, with at least 57 bodies retrieved. Closing one route merely shifts the danger to other, often more perilous, paths.
The death toll confirms this trend. Although fewer boats are reaching Spanish shores, deaths at sea remain high. According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), at least 416 people have died or gone missing on the Canary Islands route so far in 2025. NGOs estimate that nearly 2,000 people have died, including men, women and children. Europe’s maritime border remains one of the most dangerous in the world.
Another key point often missed in public debate is that so-called ‘irregular’ arrivals account for just around 6% of all foreign entries into Spain. The majority of people arriving via these routes are fleeing situations of extreme violence. Between 70% and 80% of them apply for asylum upon arrival. These people are not seeking a border to cross, but a chance to save their lives.
Presenting the drop in arrivals as a victory obscures this reality. Current migration policies still prioritise deterrence over protection. They reduce visible numbers at arrival while reinforcing the invisibility of suffering and death. Routes close, borders harden and smugglers adapt their itineraries. Migration itself does not disappear.
The Canary Islands route thus illustrates a broader logic. As long as prevention is prioritised over protection, the border will continue to kill. Numbers may fall. The tragedies, however, will persist.
