Arrivals by sea of nationals from four West African countries fell by 59 per cent in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, according to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM). However, this downward trend does not mean that the risks have disappeared. Routes are changing, whilst dangerous crossings persist.
Between January and June 2026, 4,566 people from Mali, Senegal, Guinea and The Gambia were registered as having reached Europe by sea. This figure represents a 59 per cent fall compared with the first half of 2025, according to new IOM data. Despite this decline, the organisation stresses that the reasons driving people to migrate persist and that dangerous trips continue along several routes.
“A decline in the number of arrivals at a particular location does not mean that the pressures have disappeared,” said Amy Pope, Director General of the IOM. She emphasises that migrants sometimes take other routes, calling for the entire journey to be taken into account, from the country of departure to the final destination.
The Atlantic Route Remains Most Popular, Whilst Mediterranean Routes Are on the Rise
In the first half of 2026, the West African Atlantic Route remained the main access route to Europe for West African nationals. They accounted for 83 per cent of recorded arrivals on this route, according to IOM data. At the same time, the proportion of people arriving via the Mediterranean routes increased. The Western Mediterranean route accounted for 21.9 per cent of arrivals, compared with 15.6 per cent in 2025. The Central Mediterranean route accounted for 10.5 per cent, compared with 8.6 per cent the previous year.
These trends are evidence of a shift in the routes taken. Whilst the total number of arrivals is falling, the increase in the proportion of West African migrants using the Mediterranean routes highlights the importance of monitoring migration flows across all routes.
In the Canary Islands, the Drop in Arrivals Has Not Been Accompanied by an Equivalent Drop in Deaths
The Atlantic route to the Canary Islands remains particularly hazardous. Arrivals in the archipelago fell by 62 per cent between 2024 and 2025. However, the number of recorded deaths and disappearances fell by only 4 per cent, from 1,215 to 1,172. For the IOM, this gap highlights the dangers to which migrants continue to be exposed on this route, despite the decrease in the number of arrivals.
Changes in departure points are also contributing to changes in the conditions of the crossings. Tighter controls in historically popular departure areas in Morocco, Mauritania and Senegal have led to a shift in departure points further south, notably towards The Gambia, Guinea and Guinea-Bissau.
These new departure points can result in sea crossings being extended by up to 750 kilometres, bringing some journeys to around 2,200 kilometres. The increased distances heighten the challenges and risks associated with these journeys.
Enhancing Cooperation, Opportunities for Safe Migration
The downward trend in arrivals comes as countries of origin, transit and destination have stepped up their cooperation efforts. These focus in particular on migration governance, institutional capacity-building, the protection of migrants, reintegration and bilateral and regional cooperation.
However, data on departures and interceptions show that people continue to attempt these crossings. For the IOM, this situation confirms the need to sustain efforts towards reducing risks, expanding opportunities for migrants and making migration routes safer.
“No country can solve this problem on its own,” Amy Pope emphasised. The IOM Director General calls for migrants to be protected throughout their journey, for genuine opportunities to be created for young people and for cooperation between countries to be enhanced.
A decline in sea crossings is therefore not, in itself, enough to assess the changing landscape of West African migration. Changes in routes, the lengthening of certain crossings and the continuing deaths and disappearances show that people’s safety remains a key concern.
For the countries affected, the challenge will be to monitor these developments beyond mere arrival figures and to strengthen coordinated responses in order to reduce the dangers to which migrants are exposed.
