The latest Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) from the World Economic Forum (WEF), published in January 2025, underscores the severe impact of climate change on African populations, particularly through forced migration. Extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves, once seen as distant threats, have become immediate and pressing concerns. These climate-related disasters are increasingly driving the displacement of vulnerable communities, especially women, children and individuals with limited mobility.

At the beginning of this century, an era marked by brutal challenges and overlapping polycrises, environment-related natural disasters are disproportionately affecting rural populations in the “Global South” zone. These communities often live in conditions of extreme vulnerability and marginalization. According to the 2023 report by the Internal Migration Observatory, the five countries most affected by these climate-driven events are Pakistan, the Philippines, China, India and Nigeria, which together account for 98% of the 32.6 million new displacements. Their capacity to adapt is severely hindered by financial fragility and a lack of digital connectivity, restricting their access to institutional power and vital information and resources.

Climate change: an ever-increasing driver of forced migration

Over the past decade, since 2014, extreme weather events have ranked among the most pressing global risks. In the 2025 Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) by the World Economic Forum (WEF), 14% of respondents identified these events as urgent priorities for the future, especially as we approach 2050. Climate change is now widely recognized as one of the primary drivers of forced migration in Africa, with devastating humanitarian and economic consequences.

Causes and consequences of climate-induced migration in Africa

In its 2021 edition of the Groundswell report, the World Bank warns that climate change could force up to 216 million people to migrate within their own countries by 2050, including 19 million in North Africa and 86 million in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate-induced migration will primarily affect rural areas, where communities are heavily dependent on natural resources. Many people will move to cities, drawn by economic opportunities and access to social services, yet they risk ending up in precarious and overcrowded urban environments. This migration trend could further exacerbate food insecurity and undermine agricultural activities that are essential to local economies.

Africa, an already vulnerable continent… hotter and more violent?

In 2024, several African countries were struck by devastating climate events, including prolonged droughts, catastrophic floods, and intense heatwaves, affecting millions of people. According to the 2023 ‘Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) report, the number of internally displaced people in Africa has increased sixfold over the past 14 years, reaching 6.3 million in 2023. Climate-related disasters are increasingly viewed as multipliers of armed conflicts, both across the African continent and globally

The struggle for land ownership and access to natural resources is a constant source of conflict around the world. Recently, these tensions have been exacerbated by climate change. Faced with increasing loss of fertile land and reduced access to vital resources, entire communities in every region of the world are being forced to choose migration.

Regions such as the Horn of Africa and the Sahel have become hotspots for conflict, where climate change, interwoven with ethnic, social, and cultural dynamics—amplifies existing vulnerabilities and intensifies risks.

Understanding climate change not only as a direct driver of displacement but also as a “threat multiplier” is essential for African States and UN agencies such as UNICEF and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in managing the ongoing polycrisis affecting Africa broadly and the Sahel region, in particular.

An uncertain future?

The Global Risks 2025 report predicts that extreme weather events will rank among the top five risks in sub-Saharan Africa by 2035. This is a deeply concerning outlook, as it signals that African populations will become increasingly vulnerable to the devastating impacts of climate change.

If the predictions of the Global Risks 2025 report come true, the consequences for Africa could be catastrophic:

• Massive population displacement, with millions forced to leave their homes and communities.
• Severe economic losses, particularly in vital sectors such as agriculture, water resources, and public health.
• Heightened social and political tensions, increasing the risk of conflict and instability.

Creating sustainable partnerships

In the face of this alarming prospect, urgent and coordinated action is essential to mitigate the effects of climate change and protect vulnerable populations across Africa. African governments, the international community, local organizations, and development agencies must work together to:

• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate impacts, in line with the recommendations of the Paris Agreement.
• Strengthen the resilience of communities and infrastructure against extreme climate hazards.
• Empower women and youth leadership to promote inclusive and resilient responses to multiple, overlapping crises.
• Provide humanitarian assistance and support to populations displaced by climate-related impacts.

The time to act is now  

Climate change represents one of the greatest challenges facing Africa today, resulting in displacement, economic instability and devastating impacts on agriculture and vulnerable communities. As this crisis continues to escalate, the need for urgent, coordinated action has never been more critical to mitigating climate impacts and protecting those most at risk.

To meet this challenge, it is essential to establish tools such as national and regional climate funds that function as “climate windows” or “climate banks”. Also, public-private partnerships should be developed, as they can play a critical role in funding climate projects and promoting sustainable practices at local, national, and regional levels. Businesses, in turn, must commit to a meaningful and operational Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) approach, one that actively involves key and vulnerable populations in sustainable development initiatives. However, achieving this requires a collaborative and inclusive framework that reflects the specific needs and expectations of local communities.